The New York Times
Jan 8, 2025
by Vanessa Barbara
Contributing Opinion Writer
Two years ago, there was a coup attempt in Brazil.
Don’t take my word for it: See the 221-page and 884-page federal police reports released in November. The fruit of two years of investigation, these much-anticipated accounts describe in astonishing detail a plan to overthrow the incoming government.
The chaos of Jan. 8, 2023 — when supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, many clad in yellow soccer jerseys, assailed government buildings in the capital — grabbed international attention. But the riots marked the end, not the beginning, of a coup attempt. As the reports make clear, the turmoil came after a carefully coordinated plan to ensure that Mr. Bolsonaro, who was voted out in October 2022, stayed in power.
Most shockingly, the plot involved assassinations. According to the reports, an elite army unit was assigned to kill the incoming president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin. There were also plans to kidnap and probably kill a Supreme Court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, who leads many of the investigations into the country’s far-right movement.
The five members of the unit have been arrested. But the conspiracy goes far beyond them. Thirty-seven men, including Mr. Bolsonaro and a host of his allies, have been charged with planning the coup. If the charges are confirmed by Brazil’s prosecutor general, a trial will take place this year.
For Brazilians, the really scary thing isn’t how close we came to having our democracy destroyed in 2023 but that it could happen again — and succeed. The reports make clear that sitting within Brazil’s democracy is a force capable of overthrowing it: the military. It is the dagger hanging over the country.
Perhaps the best place to start is with the planned killings. We don’t have to use our imagination because, helpfully, the plotters wrote it all down. The president’s executive secretary, a retired general, Mario Fernandes, printed a draft document — at the presidential palace, no less. In a reference to Brazil’s national colors and no doubt to stiffen the plotters’ patriotic resolve, it was called “Green and Yellow Dagger.”
The plan was extensive. It outlines the weaponry required to complete the mission — a machine gun, a grenade launcher, an anti-armor rocket launcher — and accepts the possibility of “100 percent fatalities” for those involved. It also considers an alternative approach of poisoning Mr. Lula, “taking into account his health issues and frequent hospital visits.” In the event of Mr. Alckmin’s assassination, it rather harshly declares that “a national commotion is not anticipated.”
Mr. de Moraes was apparently chosen as the first target. On Dec. 15, 2022, the assassins — who had negotiated a price of about $16,500 for the operation with Mr. Bolsonaro’s personal aide — moved to locations near the justice’s house. Once the unit members were in position, according to messages collected in the reports, they waited for the release of a presidential decree. When it failed to arrive, one of them commanded the others to abort the mission and start the process of exfiltration. The operation was over.
The decree, which the reports say Mr. Bolsonaro edited, was crucial to the coup. It would have suspended the powers of the Brazilian Electoral Court and detained Mr. Moraes, allowing Mr. Bolsonaro to remain in power. Twice in December, it was presented to the heads of the armed forces — which some of the officers confirmed. (Fun fact: A priest attended one of those meetings.)
The head of the navy was ready to go along with it, the reports say, but the army and air force commanders refused to participate. A lack of international support might have been one of their reasons: The U.S. government reportedly conducted a covert campaign over the year, urging Brazil’s political and military leaders to uphold the results of the election. It seems to have worked.
The police reports are clear about who was responsible for the plan. Among those indicted are a number of Mr. Bolsonaro’s top allies, including cabinet members, his vice-presidential candidate, his defense minister and a former head of the navy. According to the reports, Mr. Bolsonaro “planned, acted and was directly and effectively aware of the actions of the criminal organization aiming to launch a coup d’état and eliminate the democratic rule of law.” (Mr. Bolsonaro denies all charges.)
Compared with the kidnapping and killing plots, the rest of the plans were relatively humdrum, if still insidious. The group’s strategy covered a variety of key areas. Before the election, for instance, Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies repeatedly claimed that the country’s electronic voting system was susceptible to fraud, aiming to stir up conservatives and secure backing for a coup.
Yet the conspirators knew their assertions were false. “No evidence of fraud,” Mr. Bolsonaro’s personal aide, Lt. Col. Mauro Cid, told a colonel. One major moment in the reports is the remark made by an officer of the Brazilian intelligence agency to a colleague: “There’s a guy who posted a tweet about the ballot box invasions. We need to qualify him with a résumé.”
The government is also said to have overseen the encampments of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters in front of military headquarters and across the country, which lasted for more than two months through the end of 2022. “How long do you want us to stay here?” one protest leader asked General Fernandes. On Jan. 8, 2023, thousands of these protesters stormed government buildings in Brasília, including the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court. But by then, the coup was effectively finished.
We can be grateful for the failure. Yet even if Mr. Bolsonaro and his allies end up behind bars, the fact remains that the military appears to struggle with the idea that the republic belongs to its citizens. Its involvement is conspicuous in these reports: Four of the five arrested assassination unit members are army officers. Gen. Walter Braga Netto, a four-star general and Mr. Bolsonaro’s defense minister, has also been arrested. Of the 37 men charged with planning the coup, 25 are members of the armed forces. Nearly all hold or have held high-ranking positions.
This is troubling. Although some commanders decided not to back a coup this time, the stability of our democracy still hinges largely on the mood of the military. In a way, that’s always been the case. Since the founding of the republic in 1889, the military has made nine attempts to take over, five of which were successful. After the end of the 20-year military dictatorship in 1985 — which saw widespread human rights abuses, censorship of the press and the persecution of political opponents — the forces remained heavily involved in politics. Under Mr. Bolsonaro, they became even more powerful.
I can’t shake the feeling that there are plenty of generals, admirals and marshals who would be quick to side with a coup if their interests, and those of their organizations, weren’t fully satisfied. As we look ahead to the 2026 election, there’s reason to be worried. With an incoming U.S. administration more likely to support the military and perpetual distemper among the military ranks at Mr. Lula’s rule, we can’t be sure a coup won’t happen again.
And who knows? Maybe next time it will work.
Vanessa Barbara is the editor of the literary website A Hortaliça and writes Portuguese fiction and nonfiction.
